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The current situation in the Persian Gulf is all too similar to Europe in 1914, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG). In “Averting the Middle East’s 1914 Moment,” the ICG makes the case that the situation in the Persian Gulf has gotten so complicated and volatile that, as ICG’s Iran Project Director, Ali Vaez. put it, “Just as in Europe in 1914, a single incident has the potential of sparking a military confrontation that could, in turn, engulf the entire region.”Continue Reading

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In: Iran, Israel

This agreement would surely raise the level of tension in the Persian Gulf. Iran would correctly see the United States as taking a big step toward setting up an Israeli attack on its territory. It would surely find a way to respond, and the Islamic Republic will still have a wide range of actions that would be impactful but would be well short of anything that could trigger the treaty.

It’s an idea certain to make a volatile situation even more explosive and dangerous. It will be important that more rational forces, particularly in the Senate, be prepared to take Graham on over this very perilous course of action.Continue Reading

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In: Donald Trump, Iran

Boris Johnson now faces a conundrum, as this standoff will represent his first real challenge in foreign affairs and he cannot afford to look weak.

But an overly aggressive style that raises tensions is just what his critics have worried Johnson would display as prime minister.

The Tory premier’s vulnerability to Washington’s whims is even keener due to his lack of a majority in parliament, a deficit starker than the one that fell Theresa May.Continue Reading

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In: Donald Trump, Iran

In the final analysis, even if Trump is voted out or otherwise removed from office, getting to a point where a potentially calamitous war is no longer a daily threat will require a significant leap of faith on the part of the Iranians. And before that can even be wished for, there needs to be courageous leadership in the United States prepared to go farther than Obama did in recognizing that Iran is, for all its faults, a rational actor that needs to be brought into both the international community and the local Gulf community in a sincere way.Continue Reading

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The EU find a way for Trump to back off of his “maximum pressure” strategy while allowing him to claim a victory, even if he lies about it, as the president did with Mexico. That path is risky, because it calls for a firmer, more direct stance from the European Union. We know how Trump treats allies who stand up to him. But it is a far smaller risk than the current situation, where one mistake could lead to the widest Mideast war yet, threatening the lives of millions and crippling the global economy.Continue Reading