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In: Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine

The odds against success are great, but there seems to be no better alternative. Those odds, however, edge into impossibility if the Palestinian leadership cannot overcome the obstacles of occupation and history and come up with the sort of strategy for success that has been missing since the first intifada, the Palestinians’ only significant victory to date. Abbas’s successor, wherever he or she may come from and whenever he or she may arrive, must do better than he has.Continue Reading

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In: Jerusalem

Advertisements President Donald Trump has apparently decided to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The announcement, expected to come on Wednesday, has already elicited sharp responses. Surprisingly, though, the real danger is, if anything, being understated. The danger in this move is ironically epitomized in the statement by the dovish, pro-Israel group, J Street. Their president, Jeremy Ben-Ami,Continue Reading

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In: Donald Trump, Iran, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is now a very unstable monarchy. That could change over time, but it also could get worse. Moreover, MbS’s “bold steps” in Yemen, with Qatar, and even at home have thus far proven to be detrimental for all, including for Saudi interests. This is where the president of the United States has put not only his faith, but the fate of the entire Middle East, with repercussions that will certainly be felt in the United States. That should concern us all.Continue Reading

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In: Donald Trump, Palestine

Will the Saudi offensive work? If it does, it will re-entrench the Arab dictatorship model that thrived for so long in the region. That may or not be the model that someone like Mahmoud Abbas prefers, but it is now the only wagon to which he can hitch his hopes. Trump has created the opportunity to see if that tactic will work. If it does, hopes for democracy will have suffered a serious defeat. If it fails, the recent revival of Iranian regime change in US policy circles shows we are not learning from defeats and mistakes.Continue Reading

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In: Uncategorized

In both the broader regional conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian one, Trump is determined to strengthen one side to such an extent that the other will be forced to settle on very unfavorable terms. This thinking has been tried before, and it’s always failed, with the people of the Middle East paying the price. With Trump in charge, there seems to be little doubt that this will happen again.Continue Reading