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In: Donald Trump, Iran, North Korea

The aftermath of leaving the JCPOA holds no promise. The short-term future is particularly grim precisely because, to paraphrase Macron, Trump believes he can bully other countries into doing what he wants by employing a stick and offering no carrots. That is a recipe for heightened—even if still simmering—tensions at best and outright warfare seeking the quixotic and self-defeating regime change at worst. Trump’s ignorance of world affairs—combined with his newly minted war cabinet—does not promise many best-case scenarios.Continue Reading

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In: North Korea

This path is much longer than the one with Iran. Negotiators cannot afford to be frustrated by the fact that North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons until it is much further along this path. For a president ignorant of history, current realities, and diplomatic processes, a president moreover who demands instant gratification, the prospects of engaging with North Korea over the long term are bleak.Continue Reading