The current situation in the Persian Gulf is all too similar to Europe in 1914, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG). In “Averting the Middle East’s 1914 Moment,” the ICG makes the case that the situation in the Persian Gulf has gotten so complicated and volatile that, as ICG’s Iran Project Director, Ali Vaez. put it, “Just as in Europe in 1914, a single incident has the potential of sparking a military confrontation that could, in turn, engulf the entire region.”Continue Reading

Boris Johnson now faces a conundrum, as this standoff will represent his first real challenge in foreign affairs and he cannot afford to look weak.

But an overly aggressive style that raises tensions is just what his critics have worried Johnson would display as prime minister.

The Tory premier’s vulnerability to Washington’s whims is even keener due to his lack of a majority in parliament, a deficit starker than the one that fell Theresa May.Continue Reading

In the final analysis, even if Trump is voted out or otherwise removed from office, getting to a point where a potentially calamitous war is no longer a daily threat will require a significant leap of faith on the part of the Iranians. And before that can even be wished for, there needs to be courageous leadership in the United States prepared to go farther than Obama did in recognizing that Iran is, for all its faults, a rational actor that needs to be brought into both the international community and the local Gulf community in a sincere way.Continue Reading